One question, answered daily
Should You Buy Bitcoin Today?
Today's verdict
Computing…
The verdict comes from three independent checks — Timing (is a rebound setup confirmed?), Value (is BTC cheap versus its own history?) and Tape (is the leverage & liquidity environment safe?). A red Tape vetoes everything. Each step below shows today's live reading.
Step 1 · Timing trigger
Rebound Score
The engine of this site. It only speaks after a real drawdown — and when it crosses its threshold, the historical odds of a quick bounce have been strongly in the buyer's favour.
Loading score...
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Last 30 days
Score Path
In the tested history, once the score crossed 70, Bitcoin reached +5% within 10 days 84% of the time — across 32 signals. Push the bar to 80+ and the hit-rate has been even higher. Higher score → stronger rebound odds.
What drives today's score
Step 2 · Value check
Is Bitcoin Cheap Right Now?
MVRV compares price to what holders actually paid on-chain. We rank today against 16 years of history — a low percentile has historically marked the better long-term accumulation zones.
Step 3 · Tape check has veto power
Is the Environment Safe to Buy Into?
Even a cheap, well-timed entry gets destroyed by a hostile tape. Crowded leverage can liquidate the move; draining stablecoin liquidity removes the fuel. If this check turns red, the verdict is "stand aside" no matter what the other two say.
Step 4 · Action
What to Do With It
The full decision rule, nothing hidden. Today's row is highlighted. "Reserve" means the buying power you set aside in advance for adding to Bitcoin — never money you can't lock up.
| Conditions | Stance | Extra deployment |
|---|---|---|
| Tape is red (any other lights) | Stand aside — veto | No new buys. Crowded or draining tapes liquidate good entries. |
| All three green | Prime window | Deploy a full tranche — e.g. 1/3 of reserve. |
| Two green | Accumulation zone | Deploy a half tranche — e.g. 1/5 of reserve. |
| One green | No edge | Baseline DCA only. Hold the reserve. |
| No greens | Wait | Nothing. Patience costs nothing here. |
Baseline DCA never stops
A fixed small scheduled buy runs regardless of signals. This flow only decides when to add extra tranches from your reserve.
Tranches, never all-in
Split the reserve into 3–5 slices before you start. Even an 84% hit-rate misses — slices keep a miss survivable.
Spot only, no leverage
This flow finds better spot entries. Leverage converts "early" into "liquidated" — the exact failure Step 3 screens for.
Know which trade you're in
Value (Step 2) pays over months-to-years. Timing (Step 1) targets a bounce within ~2 weeks. Decide before you click buy.
Proof & honesty
Last 7 Formal Signals
| Date | Score | Regime | Result | 10D max | 10D DD |
|---|
Everything on this page is a historical conditional probability, not a forecast. Signals that failed out-of-sample testing as predictors are shown on the Data Deep-Dive as context only — never sold as signals here.